Incumbent Berpeluang Besar Tetapi Belum Tentu Menang

Incumbent Berpeluang Besar, Tetapi Belum Tentu Menang.

Oleh Dr. Teguh Yuwono, M.Pol.Admin.

Peluang incumbent untuk memenangkan pemilihan kepala daerah memang cukup besar. Di Jawa Tengah misalnya sebagian besar incumbent yang bertanding kembali pada pilkada tahun 2015 memenangkan pemilihan. Sebut saja misalnya Kota Semarang, Kabupaten Semarang, Kabupaten Sukoharjo, Kabupaten Boyolali dan Kota Solo.

Walaupun ada juga beberapa kabupaten yang incumbent nya kalah seperti di Kabupaten Kendal dan Demak. Yang menarik di dua kabupaen ini adalah adalah munculnya punishment factors terhadap incumbent bupati, karena dinilai tidak lagi mewakili aspirasi masyarakat. disamping itu, kepemimpinannya juga dipandang kurang berhasil. Di kabupaten Kendal, persoalan infrastruktur yang buruk misalnya, menjadi faktor yang kuat untuk mengalahkan incumbent.

Di Demak, kekalahan incumbent disebut karena figur ini tidak cukup tangkas dan cekatan daam meresponden masyarakat. juga faktor pragmatime politik yang tinggi di Demak mampu mewujudkan suksesi kepemimpinan.

Jadi, sekalipun peluang incumbent lebih besar, tetapi bukan berarti tidak bisa dikalahkan. Politics is art of possibilities. So? be ready and be rational.

Dari kaki gunung ungaran, KGI Semarang

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